N-deal: New US draft text to be released next week

NEW DELHI: A new US draft text for an NSG waiver to India is ready and should be circulated to member countries this weekend. Negotiations between the US and India on the language are going right down to the wire and have involved national security adviser M K Narayanan working on the sticky bits with his counterpart Stephen Hadley. Nevertheless, the next elements of the India N-deal — NSG waiver, a shrinking Congressional calendar and the French and Russian N-deals waiting to jump into the act — might be coming into conflict with each other. This is making it more necessary for high level political intervention to get the deal done. This, said sources, could involve invoking another waiver authority in the US' Atomic Energy Act — that is, to waive the review period "in part or wholly". This would allow the Congress to deal with the N-deal without breaking its calendar. At the most, said sources, the US Congress could extend its session beyond September 26, which is the last day given. But until that is done, officials in Washington involved with the deal are looking askance at the fact that with the number of days in the congressional calendar shrinking rapidly, the 30-day period review of the N-deal could prove to be a killer for US business. They have raised fears that once the NSG waiver is done, France and Russia would jump in with their nuclear agreements with India and try to get for themselves a first mover's advantage. Sources said India has given a verbal assurance that it would wait for the US to complete its own processes — a sort of gentleman's agreement. But there would be a time-line for this as well. The effort now is to make certain that US business doesn't lose out because of Congress inaction. The Democratic vice-presidential hopeful, Joe Biden, will play a very crucial role in the coming weeks. Few House Democrats will cross Biden if he decides, along with other Congress leaders Harry Reid, Mitch McConnell and Nancy Pelosi to invoke the waiver and take a decision on the N-deal early on. The way this could work is something like this: the US president would submit a series of about 8-9 presidential determinations after the NSG waiver. The certification documents are being drafted, said sources, and this was confirmed by US secretary of state Condoleezza Rice. This would set the ball rolling and the two committees — in the House of Representatives and the Senate — would take on the deal.
source:TOI